In February, the amount of social finance decreased, and the “mortgage loan” decreased by hundreds of billions of corporate bonds every year.
February was a critical period for epidemic prevention and control. Delays in home isolation and resumption of work reduced personal consumption and corporate financing requirements.According to the February financial market data released on March 11, social financing increased by US $ 855.4 billion and RMB loans increased by US $ 905.7 billion, both of which dropped significantly from January, but the alternating growth rates of the two were relatively stable, at 10 respectively.7%, 12.1%.There are also some bright spots in the data. During the epidemic, financial loans to real enterprises increased incrementally, as shown by the increase in unit short-term loans in February of US $ 654.9 billion, and an increase of US $ 506.9 billion.In terms of indicators that reflect the money supply, the transition to the overall guarantee of liquidity after the opening of the financial market in February caused the growth of the broad money (M2) to 8 in February.8%; the production and operation momentum of the merged enterprises gradually recovered, and the annual growth rate of the narrow currency (M1) in February also increased from the rare growth rate of 0 in January to 4.8%.Ample liquidity, M2 increased by 8 in ten years.8% from the indicator reflecting the money supply, the end of February, M2 balance 203.08 trillion yuan, an annual increase of 8.8%, the growth rate is 0 higher than the end of January and the same period of last year.4 and 0.8 digits; M1 has a surplus of 55.27 trillion, an annual increase of 4.8%; balance of currency in circulation (M0) 8.82 trillion, an increase of 10 in ten years.9%.The Air Force is affected by the superimposed factors of the Spring Festival and the epidemic situation. In January, the M1 growth rate was rarely 0.Wen Bin, chief official of China Minsheng Bank, said that this year, the implementation of RRR cuts, increased open market operations, and lowered policy interest rates to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity.Public information shows that two days before the opening of the financial market in early February, it gradually started through short-term reverse repurchase operations1.7 trillion of funds, and then invested in medium and long-term funds through MLF (medium-term loan facility).A person close to the regulator said that the M0 growth rate significantly increased to 10.9% is related to the cash still in the hands of residents after the Spring Festival and not deposited in the bank.M1 grows by 4 every year.8%, an obvious rebound at the end of January earlier, in which the growth rate of corporate demand deposits was 3.6%, 8 higher than the end of January.The three single, mainly accompanied by the development of the epidemic, the financial system has increased support for the real economy, the company’s production and operation motivation has increased, and the demand deposits prepared have also increased accordingly.Changwei Securities macro analyst Zhao Wei believes that the impact of the epidemic on the macro economy may be concentrated in the first quarter; from the second quarter, with the gradual recovery of economic activity, the economy may appear to have a recovery rebound.At first glance, the pressure of a broad fiscal balance will still suppress the space for economic recovery.It is expected that the annual economic performance will be “inverted V” trend.A person in charge of the asset management department of the brokerage believed that the impact of the epidemic should be digested in the first half of the year, and the economy gradually returned to the right track in the second half of the year.The increase in social finance has previously decreased by 111.1 billion. According to additional data, preliminary statistics show that the stock of social financing scale at the end of February was 257.18 trillion, an increase of 10 in ten years.7%.In February, the scale of social financing increased by US $ 855.4 billion, which was US $ 111.1 billion less than the same period last year.”This increase is lower than in February, where the Spring Festival was last year, indicating that the epidemic has affected residents’ consumption and physical financing needs, and the counter-cyclical adjustment policy is also necessary to increase efforts.”A broker from the asset management department told the sauna, Yewang.Specifically, the multi-item merger of social financing dragged down. In January, it supported government bond financing with a large increase in social financing. In February, net financing was 182.4 billion US dollars, which was less than 252.3 billion US dollars per year.”Non-standard” three asset financing also continued to increase, of which entrusted debt decreased by 35.6 billion US dollars, a reduction of 15.2 billion US dollars per year; trust debt decreased by 54 billion US dollars, an additional reduction of 50.3 billion US dollars; undiscounted bank acceptance bills decreased by 3961Billion, a reduction of 85.8 billion a year.A macro analyst of a securities firm told reporters that affected by the epidemic, the demand for trust, infrastructure, real estate and other industries or fields has decreased. Many of them were stagnant in February. After the government issued more than 700 billion yuan of government bonds in January, the remainingThere are not many, so the overall increase in social financing has dropped sharply.But she also said that from January to February, the data performance is not bad.Some sources say that the cost of bond financing has fallen, and corporate debt has accelerated and is close to regulation. The growth rate of corporate bond and stock financing has increased significantly.The growth rates of corporate bond financing and stock financing were 14.5% and 5.9%, 0 higher than the end of last year.7 and 0.9 averages.During the epidemic, the financial system optimized the work process, improved the efficiency of the issuance, and provided funds for the company through bonds and stocks. At the same time, the cash was used to pay for the issuance of the epidemic prevention and control debt, which reduced the financing cost of the enterprise and provided funds for the subsequent resumption of productionready.A prominent example is that housing companies have issued debt financing, and the scale of financing has been further expanded.Wind data shows that on January 2, 2020, domestic housing enterprise bond financing was 248.4 billion, an increase of 36%.This is related to policy support.The highest in recent times, the Securities Regulatory Commission and other departments have repeatedly expressed their support for private enterprise bond financing.On February 24, Peng Lifeng, deputy director of the long-term financial market department, said at the press conference of the State Council of China that the transition exceeded the expected issuance liquidity, the bond market liquidity was relatively ample, and the cost of bond financing fell.”Now looking at the one-year and three-year AAA medium-term note yields are 2, respectively.75% and 3.05%, which is about 30 basis points lower than before the Spring Festival. The decline in bond financing costs will help companies continue their debts.In addition, green channels have been established for the debt issuance expansion of the affected financial institutions and enterprises, so the improvement of issuance efficiency is also conducive to alleviating the pressure of corporate refinancing.”Peng Lifeng said.For the bailout of small and medium-sized enterprises, the increase in unit loans extended by nearly 300 billion yuan is the increase in corporate debt financing growth. The increase in corporate loans is also a bright spot in the two-month financial data.The data shows that the RMB loan balance at the end of February was 157.36 trillion yuan, an annual increase of 12.1%, which was the same as that at the end of January; the month increased by 905.7 billion, and increased by 19.9 billion many times.Among them, unit loans were redistributed and increased by 1.1 trillion US dollars, an increase of more than 299.2 billion US dollars a year; of which short-term unit loans increased by 654.9 billion US dollars, an increase of 506.9 billion US dollars a year.”The increase in the increase in loans to physical enterprises by crime plot finance has provided the necessary liquidity support for the normal operation of the enterprise and prevented the situation of the enterprise from breaking the cash flow.”” Someone called it earlier.Zhao Wei, a macro analyst at Cheung Kong Securities, also said that the supplementary credit was slightly higher than the same period last year, or that it mainly came from credit support for epidemic prevention and control.Since February, it has provided $ 800 billion in special re-loans each year, and then re-discounted re-loans to support epidemic prevention and control and alleviate sleepiness mechanisms, thereby increasing the growth of short-term corporate debt.With policy support, corporate short-term loans increased by 506.7 billion to 654.9 billion annually, while bill financing declined significantly.Huachuang Solid Revenue Analyst Liang Weichao told reporters that the two-month supplementary credit is generally stable, and the epidemic has a conflicting impact on credit demand. However, the easing policy has made timely efforts to vigorously promote the decline in financing costs and the expansion of credit expansion. It is still supportingThe credit scale maintained a certain increase.This is evident in the credit structure, mainly because the short-term loans of the corporate sector support the credit scale, and the decline in the short-term and medium- and long-term credits of the residential sector is large.In the follow-up, the support of the easing policy for the financial cycle will continue to be maintained, especially after the resumption of production and resumption of construction, the infrastructure stimulus policy will drive the demand for supporting financing, and whether the financing of the residential sector can rebound is also very important.Important indicator; Corporate bond financing performance in February’s social finance data is bright, “epidemic prevention and control debt” and other financial support policies and its corporate bond financing “weak month is not weak”.The “increased loan” of less than 100 billion a year has affected the sales and consumption of commercial housing, resulting in a substantial net decrease in residential loans, a net increase of medium- and long-term loans of USD 37.1 billion and a net decrease of short-term loans of USD 450.4 billion.From the perspective of housing loans, household sector loans decreased by US $ 413.3 billion in February this year, of which mid- and long-term loans that reflected changes in housing loans increased by US $ 37.1 billion. In 2019, this figure increased by US $ 222.6 billion, which means that there were fewer in February this year.An increase of 185.5 billion yuan.This, Zhang Dawei, the chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, told reporters that the decrease in February mortgage data was mainly due to the fact that banks did not open their doors and the property market shut down.According to the normal credit rhythm, the loans in February are basically second-hand houses from December to January of the previous year, or newly built commercial houses in the previous period (because most new houses will be capped for about one year, and the loans will be delayed by one.Years, and second-hand housing will lag 1-2 months).At present, the downturn in the real estate market will gradually affect the mortgage data. It is expected that the mortgage data in March will be improved from February.Sauna, Ye Wang Cheng Weimiao Editor Yue Caizhou proofread Liu Yue Fu Chun stunned