Monthly Archives: March 2020

Taiji shares (002368) in-depth report： large-scale smart government builders in transition

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Taiji shares (002368) in-depth report: large-scale smart government builders in transition

The company is a conventional large-scale integrated IT service provider and is undergoing a shareholding restructuring. We expect this major adjustment to inject new vitality into the company.

As one of the important players in the Xinchuang industry, the company will expand its scale of business in 2020, and its performance is expected to enter an accelerated track.

We outstandingly raised the company’s performance forecast for 2020-2021, corresponding to a target price of 69 yuan, and maintain a “buy” rating.

Large integrated IT service provider in transition.

Founded in 1987, the company is a veteran software service provider in China and a leader in domestic e-government, smart cities and key industry informatization.

The company’s actual controller, China Electric Power Technology Corporation (CETC), is the only large-scale scientific and technological military industrial group covering the entire field of electronic information, and has continuously transformed its corporate system.

At present, the company’s shares are planned to be transferred to the CLP Taichi Group. After the transfer, the actual controller of the company will remain unchanged, and the controlling shareholder will be changed from public institution holding to enterprise holding.

We expect that after the company has completed the equity adjustments and personnel adjustments in stages, the business is expected to enter an accelerated upward trajectory.

Xinchuang’s business is expected to become the main engine of growth.

The company and its affiliated groups, as the pioneers of the group’s Xinchuang industry, are accelerating the creation of the Xinchuang industrial ecology. At present, they have formed an industrial system including databases, middleware, office systems, industry application software, etc., and strengthened the BIOS and operating system with China Electronics TechnologyAnd other product collaborations, and carry out industrial cooperation with upstream and downstream partners.

The company mainly provides integrated services and software products in the field of letter creation. We expect the letter creation business to start large-scale construction in 2020, and it is expected to bring incremental 深圳桑拿网 revenue to the company in the next five years to exceed $ 20 billion.

Among them, we expect that integrated services revenue will reach 12 in 2020-2023.

6/30.

5/36.

8/21 ppm; In terms of software products, Huidian Technology’s OA application is mainly used to realize functions and achieve high-speed growth.

We expect that the Sunac business is expected to rebuild a Taichi stake in the next three years, the main builder of digital government.

The company has long served the construction of government affairs informatization in China. In the construction of a new generation of government affairs cloud platform, the company’s business model is shifting from the traditional one-time construction to the provision of long-term operating services, and the gross profit margin has continued to increase.

Based on the idea 上海夜网论坛 of “cloud leading the future”, the company has expanded the construction of government affairs clouds in Beijing, Tianjin and other places. At present, Beijing Taiji Government Affairs Cloud has carried more than 644 business systems of 69 commissions and offices.

At the same time, the company is exploring new long-term growth directions, including accumulation in energy companies, relying on China Electronic Technology (CETC) ‘s electronic component production capacity, the Industrial Internet may become the company’s next focus area, the company will issue convertible bonds in 2019Of which 4.
.

The 800 million funds raised will be used for the construction of the industrial Internet platform.

Risk factors: The progress of the CIC business industry is less than expected; the market competition and profit margin of CIC business are worse than expected due to intensified competition; the company’s stock transfer progress is less than expected.

Investment suggestion: We expect the company’s performance to increase rapidly through the expansion of its business.

We slightly lower the company’s 2019 revenue and net profit forecasts to 67.

1.7 billion and 3.

52 trillion (previous forecast was 70.

800 million and 3.

8.4 billion), raised the company’s revenue forecast for 2020-2021 to 89.

3/128.

8.4 billion (previous forecast was 88.

62/110.

700 million), raised net profit forecast to 6.

03/8.

88 ppm (was 5).

38/7.

7.1 billion).

We use the relative estimation method and take the e-government comparable company PE48X 2020 as the target PE, corresponding to a target price of 69 yuan, and maintain a “buy” rating.

Focus Media (002027)： The economic downturn will gradually release the scale effect of revenue

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Focus Media (002027): The economic downturn will gradually release the scale effect of revenue

Core point of view: The company released the 2018 annual report and the 2019Q1 quarterly report. It is expected that the net profit of 19Q2 is still under pressure on April 25, 2019. The company released the 2018 annual report and the first quarter of 2019 report.

The company achieved revenue of 145 in 2018.

51 ppm, an increase of 21 in ten years.

12%; net profit attributable to mother 58.

23 ppm, 10-year average3.

03%; the net profit of non-attributed mothers will be gradually realized by 50%.

26 ppm, a 10-year increase3.

58%.

The company achieved operating income of 26 in 2019Q1.

11 ‰, a decrease of 11 per year.

78%; net profit attributable to mothers3.

40 ‰, 71 years average.

81%; Realize deduction of non-returned net profit1.

16 ‰, 89 years before.

17%.

The weak growth in 19Q1 was mainly due to the supplementary economic downturn in the off-season. We expect the economic downturn will still affect Q2 revenue.

According to the company’s performance guidance, 2019H1 is expected to achieve net profit attributable to mothers7.

4?
11.

At 0 ppm, the average annual fluctuation is expected to be -77.

88%?
-67.

12%.

Accelerating the layout in 2018, the pace of expansion in Q1 2019 has improved, and the company has about 72 self-operated equipment for elevator TV media at the end of 2018.

40,000 units, about 2 join the equipment.

50,000 units; self-operated media in elevator poster media is about 193.

80,000, about 8 outsourcing poster media.

50,000 units, cinema media screen more than 1.

270,000 yuan.

The value of elevator media resources at the end of 2019Q1 is 275.

50,000, 9 in a single season.

30,000 units.

The overall expansion pace indicator for 2019 has improved in the second half of 2018.

We believe that the accelerated layout in 2018 has enabled Focus Media to integrate a marketing network that can cover the most core groups. The scale effect brought by more points in the future will continue to be released, and the value of media resources will be further highlighted.

The macroeconomic downturn, the proportion of receivables / revenues and prepayments / revenues rose sharply until March 31, 2019, and the balance of accounts receivable and bills receivable on the company’s account was 42.

2 trillion, accounts receivable and bills receivable / operating income ratio is 161.

6%, about the same period in previous years increased significantly.

Affected by macroeconomic indicators, the repayment cycle of the company’s core customers has generally slowed down.
In terms of prepayment, as of March 31, 2019, the company’s prepayment amount was 12.

400000000.
The increase in prepaid accounts since the second quarter of 2018 was mainly due to the increase in the prepaid media resource rent and the increase in equipment purchase prepayments brought about by the rapid expansion of expansion.

Investment suggestion: We expect Focus Media to realize net profit attributable to mothers from 2019 to 202037.

55/48.

38 重庆耍耍网 trillion, EPS is 0.

26/0.

33 yuan, 2019/4/25 closing price corresponding to PE are 25.

6/19.

8 times.

We believe that Focus Media, as the pioneer of elevator media, has a strong point network and sales capabilities to build a wide moat.

In the future, after 2018, the maximum point will be increased, the scale effect will continue to be released, and the industry leader will gradually stabilize.

We give the company 22 times PE in 2020, corresponding to a reasonable value7.

26 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risks suggest a downturn in the macro economy; intensified market competition; and less than expected box office.

Shanghai Jahwa (600315) Annual Report Commentary： Brand Marketing Drives Rapid Online Development Expenses Increased Income Profits Double Pressure

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Shanghai Jahwa (600315) Annual Report Commentary: Brand Marketing Drives Rapid Online Development Expenses Increased Income Profits Double Pressure

Incident Description The company released its 2019 annual report on February 20, and the company achieved operating income of 75 in 2019.

9.7 billion, an annual increase of 6.

43%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company is 5.

5.7 billion, an annual increase of 3.

09%.

The event review focused resources to create star products and promote social media word-of-mouth marketing.

In 2019, the company made in-depth insights into consumer needs, effectively used Chinese cultural elements, and covered different age groups of consumers with differentiated brand positioning.

The company concentrated its superior resources to create star products, actively promoted new media word-of-mouth marketing, and increased the proportion of social media investment to more than 50%.

In terms of recruiting new people, the Huameijia system is used to realize the full-brand linkage recruitment. As of the end of 2019, the total number of registered members of Huameijia has exceeded 1.15 million, and the membership activity has reached 71%.

During the year, Herborist completed its brand positioning adjustment, adhered to the brand tone of high-end and traditional Chinese medicine herbs, and launched the second generation of double repairing Tai Chi essence and freeze-dried mask with the essence as the starting point. After the listing of Tai Chi essence, the new product acquisition rate was 57%.The sales volume of freeze-dried mask series has exceeded 100 million yuan; the Liushen brand has continued its youthful strategy and gradually realized the growth of its number. The basic shower gel series has been newly upgraded, and its spokesperson fan operation and word-of-mouth marketing have been the breakthrough points to increase brand share and value; Yuze strengthenedDifferentiated brand positioning of “Repair Skin Barrier”, further enhance brand awareness through social content marketing, seize market hotspots and launch hyaluronic acid ampoule essence. It debuted on Tmall Facial Essence on the first day of sale-the largest sales volume of the ampoule category, year roundThe growth rate is over 80%; Qichu, as the leading brand of baby care, expanded the target group to launch sensory 深圳桑拿网 enlightenment series during the year, and promoted the new model and terminal replacement through a combination of traditional scene marketing and precise placement of new media.The brand’s third largest product series, with a growth rate of over 25%.

Continuously optimize channel operations and rapid development of online channels.

The company adopts an omni-channel sales model combining online and offline sales. Offline sales are distributed by dealers, and KA is directly operated. Online sales are e-commerce and special channels.

In 2019, the company continued to optimize channel operations, rapid development of online channels, and channel sales accounted for an increase of 11 over the same period last year.

5pct to 34%, sales revenue increased by 30%, e-commerce through cooperation with excellent TP network creation to improve the team’s operational capabilities, seize the e-commerce communication traffic dividend, promote purchase conversion, special channels through multiple marketing, live broadcast and training and other means, Which further increased the channel and customer penetration rate; offline is the company’s main channel, channel sales account for 66%, as of the end of 2019, the company’s organized distribution of controlled stores includes 200,000 supermarket stores, nearly 90,000 rural outletsThere are nearly 1,500 department stores and about 1 specialty cosmetics stores.

30,000 homes, etc., used channel celebrities and scene marketing methods to guide channel innovation. However, due to the decline in department store operating income, offline channels have declined slightly.

62%.

The increase in marketing expenses suppressed the growth of profits, and the adjustment of product structure affected the slight decline in gross profit margin.

The company’s gross profit margin for 2019 is 61.

87%, a reduction of 0 per year.

At 95pct, the decrease in gross profit margin was mainly due to the adjustment of product structure in some regions such as Shandong, Beijing, and Sichuan. The increase in costs exceeded the income to suppress the growth of gross profit. The growth rate of the adjustment period of the Herborist brand division decreased.The impact of factory operations, but gross margins in Zhejiang and overseas regions increased by 1.

31 points and 1.

72 points.

Overseas regions contribute 22% of the company’s operating income. The overseas M & A project completed by the company in 2017 was Cayman A2, Ltd.

(Some of its core assets are the British mother and baby brand Tomme Tippee.) Revenue growth in 20194.

28% to 17.

30,000 yuan, net profit increased 14% to 8,611 per year.

870,000 yuan, contributing stable income and profit growth for the company.

In terms of expenses, the overall expense ratio increased by 1.

29 points to 57.

26%, sales / management / R & D expenses increased by 10 respectively.

43% / 6.

62% / 15.

60%, of which the sales expense ratio increased by 1.

5pct to 42.

2%, which was mainly affected by the increase in the promotion expenses of the Double Eleven channels. The increase in expenses suppressing profits directly affected the net profit of deducting non-attributed mothers in Q4 of -390,000.

91% to 3.

8 billion.

Finance costs are reduced by 48 per year.42% was mainly due to the decrease in exchange loss gains and losses caused by changes in the exchange rate of the US dollar against the British pound.

Investment suggestion The company covers consumer groups of different ages with differentiated brand assets. Through the combination of online and offline, the traditional omni-channel sales model linked with social media, focuses on the creation of star products, continuous product innovation, and optimized channel operationsIn 2019, the rapid development of online channels will be achieved, and traditional channels such as direct-operated KA will grow steadily. In 2020, new media community marketing will be focused on accelerating brand extension.

Taking into account the influence of factors such as reduced revenue and new crown epidemics after adjusting for new income indicators, the EPS for 2020-2022 is expected to be 0.

83/0.

88/1.

02 yuan, corresponding to the company’s closing price of 27 on February 19.

94 yuan, PE from 2020-2022 is 33.

83X / 31.

69X / 27.

42X, for the first time, gave an “overweight” rating.

There are risks. Acceleration of online and offline traffic growth; high-end foreign brands and local emerging brands bring increased market competition risks; new product progress is less than expected risks; the new crown epidemic situation brings unlimited risks.

CITIC Haizhi (000099)： Increase in gross profit margin and increase one-time income are good for performance

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CITIC Haizhi (000099): Increase in gross profit margin and increase one-time income are good for performance

The first quarter of 2019 results are in line with expectations. CITIC Haizhi announced the first quarter of 2019 results: operating income3.

320,000 yuan, an annual increase of 17%; net profit attributable to the parent company is 21.63 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48%, corresponding to 0 profit.

04 yuan.

Assume non-recurring gains and losses attributable to the mother’s net profit of 16.31 million yuan, an increase of 8 in the future.

4%, in line with our expectations.

Under the influence of one-time income, the profit in the first quarter increased significantly in ten years.

In the first quarter, the company obtained 7 million in asset disposal income from real estate disposal and reallocated income. The company’s first quarter profit increased by about 16% in ten years, which was basically the same as the growth rate of operating income.

The profit margin of main business gradually increased 2.

6 units.

The company’s main business profit margin doubled in the first quarter.

6 up to 19.

6%, a significant improvement over the same period last year, we estimate or mainly related to the company’s rapid growth in air transport business.

Development Trends International oil prices are picking up, and the offshore oil exploration market is likely to pick 四川耍耍网 up, which is good for the company’s air transportation business.

Affected by the United States’ cessation of Iran ‘s oil sanctions exemption, 1, Brent oil prices rose by more than 2% in a single day.

Since the beginning of 2019, Brent oil prices have increased by about 35%, and the average price since the beginning of the year has been slightly lower than 4% in the same period in 2018.

If the international oil price maintains the current trend, we expect that the rebound in oil prices will drive the demand in the offshore oil exploration market, which will benefit the company’s air transportation business.

Earnings forecasts are in line with expectations, and we maintain our 2019/2020 earnings forecasts1.

31/1.

53 trillion, the corresponding gain is 0.

22/0.

25 yuan.

Estimates and recommendations The company 成都桑拿网 currently has a sustainable response to 201938.

9 times P / E, 1.

6 times P / B.

Maintain Neutral rating and consider the industry’s overall assessment hub to move upwards, raising the target price by 34% to a target price of RMB 7.

70 yuan, corresponding to 35 times P / E in 2019, 1.

5 times P / B, compared with the current bear 9% downside.

Risks Off-demand recovery of offshore oil market demand; RMB depreciated sharply against USD; relevant government subsidies were cancelled.

Rating： Shanghai Index rose 1.

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84% return to 3000 points, turnover of two cities breaks trillions

Rating: Shanghai Index rose 1.

84% return to 3000 points, turnover of two cities breaks trillions

Sina Finance News on February 20th, the broad market opened slightly higher. After the opening, the index once rose, the index rose more than 1%, and then quickly fell.Picking up again, the brokerage sector collectively rose.

In the afternoon, the three major indexes rose collectively, the Shanghai index rose back to 3000 points, the index rose by more than 2%, and the brokerage sector exploded strongly. In general, the multiple A-share sectors continued to rise, the market funds were active, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges traded again.Breaking trillions.

　　The final close, the Shanghai stock index was 3030.

15 points, up 1.

84%, with a turnover of 4,137.

6.1 billion yuan (the turnover of the previous trading day was 3,813.

3.1 billion); Shencheng Index reported 11509.

09 points, up 2.

43%, with a turnover of 6546.

6.5 billion yuan (the turnover of the previous trading day was 6574.

8.4 billion);

74 points, up 2.

twenty one%.

　　From the surface of the disk, securities, miniLED, insurance and other sectors are at the top of the list, while influenza, animal vaccines, and masks are at the top of the list.

　　Sina Finance chief commentator Lao Ai[Weibo]said that yesterday’s breakthrough in trillions of transactions, today stands at 3,000 points, it is almost a rush to raise money, everyone is afraid to miss the bull market!

Who can stay pregnant?

The bullish market index securities stocks reproduced the collective daily limit, indicating that a large number of newly entered funds are looking for bargains. “Look at the lead at a glance, and pay attention at a glance.” This strategy still applies.

(Full text) Scenic spots: 1, securities Tianfeng Securities, Hongta Securities, China National Securities, Huaan Securities, Oriental Fortune and other daily limit of nearly 10 shares.

　　2. HNA is a part of HNA Innovation, HNA Holdings, HNA investment daily limit, and HNA Technology are up.

　　On the surface of the news, market rumors said that the Hainan Provincial Government, where the headquarters of HNA Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “HNA Group”) is located, is negotiating to take over the highly resistive HNA Group and dispose of its aviation assets.

Earlier this morning, an executive of HNA Group denied the rumor. He said that the rumors did not mean that he had never learned about the takeover, replacement or reorganization of HNA Group.

In the afternoon, people familiar with the matter: 厦门夜网 HNA-related rumors are incorrect, and they have been working hard. No matter which solution is used, it is in the direction that is beneficial to HNA and the enterprise.

　　News: 1, 21 financial reports, people familiar with the matter said that HNA-related rumors are inaccurate, and they have been working hard, no matter which solution is to develop in a direction that is beneficial to HNA and to the enterprise.

　　2. At a press conference of the WHO Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean on the 19th, the WHO Regional Director for the Eastern Mediterranean stated that there was no evidence that the new coronavirus was laboratory-made or that there was no evidence that the new coronavirus uses biological weaponsCreated by the identity of the new crown virus from the animal kingdom.

　　3. According to foreign media 武汉夜网论坛 reports, through the increase of new crown pneumonia cases, the mayor of Daegu, South Korea urged 2.5 million citizens not to go out to prevent infection.

　　4. You Jun, deputy minister of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, said: exemption, that is, starting from February 2020, exemption for the payment of retired work injury insurance units for SMEs, not more than 5 months.

Reduction is to pay for three social security units of large enterprises outside Hubei, and they can apply for a 50% reduction of social security for a period not exceeding 3 months.

Postponed, that is, companies with severe production and operation difficulties affected by the epidemic can postpone payment for a period of no more than 6 months and have been late in payment.

　　5. Shanghai: Epidemic prevention-related companies apply for the science and technology board, and the application will be withdrawn.

　　6. Ni Hong, deputy director of the Ministry of Housing and Construction, stated that: ① Enterprises can apply for deferred payment of housing provident fund before June 30, 2020 according to regulations, and the deferred payment will not affect employees’ physical withdrawal and apply for housing provident fund loans.

②Front-line medical personnel, epidemic prevention and control personnel, employees who were isolated due to the epidemic situation or temporarily affected by the epidemic situation, if the provident fund loan can not be repaid normally before June 30, no overdue treatment will be made; reduction, employees can reasonably increase the housing rent withdrawal quota.

③ For regions and enterprises with severe epidemics, with full consultation with employees, the proportion of voluntary accumulation funds can be decided before June 30.

　　7, Deputy Minister of Finance Yu Weiping said at the press conference that by the end of 2019, the cumulative balance of the basic pension insurance fund for enterprise employees across the country has exceeded 5 trillion yuan.

The phased fee reduction policy introduced this time is expected to reduce pension income by 471.4 billion U.S. dollars. Although the fund income has decreased, the overall impact is under control, and it is guaranteed that pensions will be paid in full and on time.

As of the end of 2019, the central budget has completed the transfer of internal capital of four batches of 81 central enterprises and central financial institutions. The actual capital transferred is.

At 3 trillion yuan, the transfer of local budgets is also being actively promoted.　　8. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development stated that enterprises can apply for deferred payment of housing provident fund before June 30, 2020 according to regulations.

During the deferred payment period, the deposit time shall be calculated continuously, without affecting the normal withdrawal and application of housing provident fund loans by each employee.

　　Outlook: CITIC Construction Investment said that the current market is more likely to be structured trading opportunities in the context of loose game liquidity, policy overweight and negative trend marginal improvement.

At present, the logic of liquidity easing has changed, which has caused pressure on the short-term market, and after the recent rapid repair, the market has increased by a short-term increase. The short-term may need to consolidate and wait for new stimulus factors.

However, after the suspension of monetary policy, the market outlook for fiscal policy to support the real economy is expected to heat up, and related sectors may bring opportunities for periodic trading.

China Merchants Bank (600036) Quarterly Report Review： What do you think of the third quarterly report of China Merchants Bank？

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China Merchants Bank (600036) Quarterly Report Review: What do you think of the third quarterly report of China Merchants Bank?

Event: On the evening of October 30, China Merchants Bank disclosed 3Q19 results: revenue 2077.

300 million, a year-on-year increase of +10.

36%; net profit attributable to mother 772.

3.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of +14.

63%; annualized weighted ROE amounts to 19.

19%.

As of the end of September 19, the scale of assets was 7.

31 trillion yuan, non-performing 北京桑拿洗浴保健 loan ratio1.

19%.

　　Earnings growth has risen, and ROE leads the market leader in banking stocks, the third-quarter report of China Merchants Bank.

Although the growth rate of net profit increased (14 in 3Q19.

6% vs 1H19 of 13.

1%), but the 19Q3 net interest margin fell as expected, which also deepened the market’s move towards the future.

Overall, performance is in line with market expectations.

In the third quarter of 19th, the revenue growth rate slightly increased, mainly due to the contribution of the improvement of non-interest income growth, while the growth of net interest income was replacing.

　　As a benchmark for retail banking, China Merchants Bank has expanded the traditional old path of “credit expansion-refinancing-credit expansion” and has the characteristics of light capital.

In the third quarter of 19, the revised ROE reached 19.

2%, leading level for A-share listed banks.

Taking into account the 3Q19 capital adequacy ratio of 15.

44%, which is higher than the reduction in regulatory requirements, and the endogenous capital is replenished quickly, and the dividend ratio may be increased in the future.

　　The asset structure has been optimized, and the net interest margin has peaked in stages. However, the loan ratio of China Merchants Bank is significantly higher than the industry average, but its loan ratio is still rising slowly, from 52 at the end of 14 years.

1% rose to 61 in 3Q19.

1%.

On the debt side, 3Q19 deposits accounted for 71.

5%.

　　3Q19 net interest margin 2.

65%, 5BP lower than the previous 1H19; 19Q3 single quarter net interest margin was 2.

57%, a decrease of 12BP month-on-month, confirming the market’s view on the staged peak of China Merchants Bank’s net interest margin.

The decrease in net interest margin in the third quarter of 19 was mainly due to the decline in loan yields and the rise in deposit costs.

Considering that the loan interest rate is still falling, the net interest margin may continue to decline slightly in the future.

　　Asset quality remains outstanding, and loan allocations remain superior to high asset quality.

The non-performing loan ratio in the third quarter of 19 was only 1.

19%, 4BP lower than 1H19.

1H19 focuses on the loan ratio1.

30%, overdue loan rate1.

56%, less adverse pressure in the future.

In addition, short-term China Merchants Bank has severely reduced the proportion of loans to non-performing high-industry industries such as manufacturing, and the relationship between asset quality and economic cycles has been improved due to credit structure adjustment and optimization, and future non-performing concerns are relatively small.

　　The loan-to-loan ratio is high.The loan-to-loan ratio in the third quarter of 19 reached 4.

89%, up 1BP earlier, maintaining a high level.

If it will be higher than 2.

The provision of 5% loan-to-loan ratio is restored to net assets, currently estimated to be only 1.

34PB (lf).

　　Investment suggestion: benchmark for retail banks with a target price of 43.

As a leading retail bank at RMB05 / share, China Merchants Bank has a relatively high proportion of retail business and prudent risk control. Its performance is less affected by the economic cycle, its performance continues to grow steadily, and its ROE is high and stable.

Although the retail business of China Merchants Bank is still large, both the number of retail customers and retail AUM have maintained a high growth rate.

However, due to the impact of deposit disintermediation and the implementation of LPR reform, it is expected that the net interest margin will gradually peak.

　　Due to the early termination, it is estimated to switch to 2020 and give China Merchants Bank a target assessment1.

7 times 20-year PB, corresponding to a target price of 43.

05 yuan / share, maintaining the rating of overweight.

Everyone’s life still holds nearly 10% of China Merchants Bank, or continue to reduce its holdings, which may gradually suppress short-term performance.

　　Risk reminder: Net interest margin drops sharply, and asset quality deteriorates.

Huaneng International (600011)： Performance is below expectations

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Huaneng International (600011): Performance is below expectations

Matters: The company released its 2018 annual report, reporting a series of 1,698 operating incomes.

6.1 billion, an increase of 11 over the same period last year (restated).

04%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the company14.

USD 3.9 billion, a decrease of 17 from the same period last year (restated).

42%.

The company proposed to send 0.

10 yuan (including tax), 15 payable dividends.

7 billion yuan.

Ping An’s point of view: Fuel costs remain high, increasing revenue does not increase profits: As happened in our comments in the third quarterly report, the company’s performance did not meet expectations.

Increase in revenue by 11.

In the case of 0%, the net 西安耍耍网 profit attributable to the mother is replaced for the third consecutive year.

The unit fuel cost of the company’s electricity sales in 2018 was 236.

89 yuan / MWh, an increase of 4 per year.

85%, total fuel cost increased by 118 compared to the same period in 2017.

1.2 billion.

The growth rate of power generation in the fourth quarter was short-term, and the on-grid electricity price began to change: Q4 Company completed power generation of 1,037.

0.7 billion kWh, an annual increase of 3.

5%, a significant growth rate.

The average on-grid price for Q4 was 422.

75 yuan / MWh, an increase of 2 from the previous month.

0%, ten-year average 1.

5%, ending 7 consecutive quarters of positive growth since 1Q17.

Investment income did not increase significantly: in 2017 the company held 1 through disposal.

4杭州桑拿.4 billion shares of Yangtze Power received investment income14.

8 billion.

At the end of 2018, the joint venture Hong Kong Energy was converted into a subsidiary to confirm investment income11.

USD 3.3 billion, and the era of joint ventures will gradually realize profit recognition investment income2.

USD 1.3 billion, plus other long-term equity investments accounted for using the equity method, has gradually increased by 14.

07 trillion US dollars, maintaining investment income without significant growth.

Investment suggestion: Subject to high fuel costs, as well as poor performance of electricity and electricity prices in the fourth quarter, the company’s performance fell short of expectations.

Under the general trend of continuing to reduce electricity prices in 2019, we have lowered our profit forecast for the company based on the principle of prudence. It is expected that the EPS in 19/20 will be 0.

28/0.

35 yuan (previous value was 0.

36/0.

46), add 21-year EPS forecast value 0.

38 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 19/20/21 PE on March 19 were 24.

5/19.

6/18.0 times, maintaining the “neutral” level.

Risk warnings: 1. The on-grid electricity price drops; 2. The coal price rises; 3. The utilization hour drops.

Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) semi-annual report review： Bolifen’s explosive growth, the province’s external growth driving force

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Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) semi-annual report review: Bolifen’s explosive growth, the province’s external growth driving force

Key points of investment: The company released its 19-year interim report and achieved revenue of 63 in 1H19.

800 million yuan, an increase of 22.

3%; net profit attributable to mother 11.

900 million yuan, an increase of 26.

3%.

In the second quarter of 19, revenue was 23.

200 million yuan, an increase of 26.

3%; net profit attributable to mother 3.

1.3 billion, an increase of 38%.

Ping An’s view: 2Q19 revenue, net profit growth basically in line with expectations.

Blue and white, Laobaifen maintained rapid growth, Bolifen’s growth accelerated.

In 1H19, the revenue of Qinghuafen wine with a wholesale price of 200 yuan / bottle increased by about 20%, and the old Baifen series (including Panama) with a wholesale price of 100-200 yuan / bottle increased by 10-20%. The biggest highlight is the wholesale price of 40.-50 yuan / bottle of Bfen, the revenue growth rate is estimated to reach 50-60%, 36% of the earlier 18 years has further accelerated. It should be the transformation of wineries to increase the speed of national expansion. Bophin is fast in this price band.Grab market 杭州桑拿 share.

In addition, the revenue from the preparation of Jiuzhuyeqing increased by 33% to 2 trillion, including a series of wine sales of Fen and Xinghuacun4.

8.1 billion, it is estimated that it is almost flat every year. Among them, Fen Brand has declined due to internal adjustments. Xinghua Village has grown rapidly.

At the end of the second quarter of 19, the balance of advance receipts was 14.

800 million, previously, the chain increased by 6 respectively.

6, 2.

800 million, should be spared for the second half of the year.

Outside the province has become the main driving force for growth, and the province has continued its steady growth momentum.

In 1H19, Fenjiu realized revenue receipts 31 in Shanxi Province and outside the Province.

500 million, 31.

7 ‰, an increase of 9 in ten years.

7%, 48.

8厦门夜网%, the scale outside the province exceeded the province for the first time.

In 2019, Fenjiu increased its expansion outside the province and vigorously explored core terminals with good results.

Due to the high market share of Fen liquor in Shanxi Province, 9.

The 7% growth rate basically reflects the market growth rate.

Looking ahead to 2019 and 2020, outside the province will still be the main source of growth for Fenjiu, and there is room for growth.

Multi-factors helped increase gross profit margins, and expansion outside the province pushed up expense ratios.

The gross profit margin in the second quarter of 19 was 70.

6% up 3 per year.

3Pct, or due to three factors: December 18-19 March, Fenjiu purchased the Group’s wine assets several times (1H18 shares sold the Group’s liquor products in a connected transaction mode, the gross profit margin was low); 2Q19 yields were lowered;Bolifen and blue and white fen wine 1H19 raise prices.

The sales expense ratio in the second quarter of 19 was 23.

02%, up 4 a year.

47Pct, it should be a winery to rapidly develop terminals outside the province, increase the upfront cost, and increase competition in the industry.

The management expense ratio in the second quarter of 19 was 7.

39% (including research and development), rising 0 in ten years.

42Pct, mainly due to the increase in employee compensation, is basically normal. The prospect of nationalization is good, and the recommendation level is maintained.

In the base market of Shanxi Province, Fen Jiu has an absolute leading edge. At the same time, as a fragrance-type leader, it has a natural national gene.

The company has initially completed the reform of the sales system, rationalized the product mix, and promoted the expansion outside the province through the product mix of “second high-end blue and white + low-end Bfen”.

Considering the increasing market competition leading to an increase in expenses, the EPS forecast for 19 and 20 years is lowered by about 4% and 5% to 2.

20, 2.

66 yuan, an increase of about 30 a year.

6%, 21%, PE is about 32.

0, 26.

4 times, maintaining the “recommended” level.

Risk reminders: 1) Downside risk of liquor industry.

The spirit of the liquor industry is highly correlated with the price trend. If the price of liquor drops, it may lead to a significant increase in corporate revenue.

2) Leader change easily leads to business fluctuation risks.

Liquor companies are greatly affected by business strategies, such as mergers and acquisitions, which may lead to corporate revenue and significant changes in profits.

3) Policy risks.

The liquor industry demand, tax rate, etc. are affected by policy changes. If related policies change, it may transform corporate revenue and profit may have a conversion impact.

Annual report series of special analysis of TMT company (7)： China UCAR (838006)： Net profit turned to profit and China Shenzhou-Baowo Automobile new retail platform officially launched

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Annual report series of special analysis of TMT company (7): China UCAR (838006): Net profit turned to profit and China Shenzhou-Baowo Automobile new retail platform officially launched

Event: The company released its 2018 annual report and achieved operating income of 59.

4.9 billion yuan; net profit attributable to mothers2.

70 million, turned losses into profits, an increase of 203 in ten years.

31%.

Preliminary results of the company’s performance growth in 2018: (1) the company’s various businesses have developed well, operating efficiency has gradually improved, and the special car business continued 杭州夜网 its profitability trend since last year; (2) the sales of the car and car business have improved compared to the previous year, and the sales methodThe adjustment and optimization are expected to gradually narrow; (3) The performance of the car flash loan business has grown significantly, and has contributed expected profits to the company.

(Company annual report) B2C and C2C special car models complement each other to create China’s largest car and travel sharing platform: Facing the huge and fast-growing special car market, the company will play a role in the strongest policy compliance and clear profit model.Leading advantages in the B2C special car field, further improving the scale and efficiency of the special car business. By continuously providing customers with safe, reliable, high-quality services, deepening brand influence, and realizing a virtuous circle of its own profit model, in order to maintain its absolute leadership in the B2C field.

At the same time, the company will continue to open and open the excellent driving and open platform to carry out C2C model business, while diversifying the B2C model business, change the existing competitive landscape.

The B2C model and the C2C model complement each other and complement each other. The company is expected to achieve a comprehensive leading position in the field of automobile travel sharing.

The company has basically built a human-vehicle ecosystem that covers the entire automotive industry chain. In the future, the company will make full use of industry resource accumulation and synergies to further develop other businesses in the automotive industry chain.

(Company Annual Report) The gross profit margin of the special car service business has increased, the flash loan business has developed rapidly, and the operation management has been improved: the special car service income in 2018 was 34.

61 trillion, down 38 a year.

93% gross profit margin from 12 in 2017.

61% rose to 21 in 2018.

26%; Flash loan services and other income in 2018 was 11.

950,000 yuan, an increase of 64 from 2017.

69%; revenue ratio is 20.

08%, an increase of 12 over 2017.

The gross profit margin was 72% from 16 in 2017.

41% rose to 71 in 2018.

72%.

With the promulgation of the policy of the online ride-hailing industry and the continuous strengthening of regulatory measures, the company has actively improved the operation and management of the private car business and gradually cleared out non-compliant vehicles and drivers. Due to this, the private car business income has declined, but at the same timeWith the improvement of operating efficiency and the accumulation of industry resources, the scale effect has gradually improved and the gross profit margin has been significantly improved; the Shenzhou car flash loan business channel has continued to sink and penetrate, and its performance has increased significantly, contributing more profits to the company.

(Company Annual Report) The revenue of the car buying business has declined, the scale has been shrinking, and the sales model has been adjusted and optimized: the revenue of the car buying business in 2018 was 12.

93 trillion, down 62 a year.

66% of net defects were up from 1 in 2017.

1.5 billion to 0 in 2018.

67 ppm, with a revenue share of 21.

74%, a decrease of 13 from 2017.

41%.

In 2018, the company continued to adjust and optimize the sales model of the Shenzhou car buying business. The company gradually shifted from underwriting to consignment sales, and comprehensively promoted the new retail strategy of Shenzhou Baowo Automobile, so that the profit model was further clear. At the same time, the sales volume of the car buying business was slightly higher than the previous yearAs inventory increases, inventory decreases and gradually narrows.

(Company Annual Report) Rapid intelligent network connection and new energy vehicle layout to promote platform interconnection: In March 2018, the company acquired 29% of China Car Rental in cash, becoming its largest shareholder, deepening cooperation and jointly building China’s largest integrated car.Sharing and travel sharing platform; In April 2018, the company joined the National Automotive Standardization Technical Committee Intelligent Connected Vehicle Sub-Technical Committee and became the only member unit of the China Smart City Industry and Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance in the travel field;Signed strategic cooperation agreements with Putian New Energy, State Grid Electric Vehicle Company, Special Call, and Wanbang New Energy, further accelerating the company’s layout of new energy vehicles. In August 2018, the company reached a strategic cooperation with Baidu to accelerate the development of China Optimus.The intelligent layout of vehicles will jointly create a new business ecology of intelligent network connection and autonomous driving.

(Company Annual Report) Jointly released a new strategy with Beijing Baowo to officially launch the “Shenzhou-Baowo Automobile New Retail Platform”: In January 2019, the company and Beijing Baowo Automobile Co., Ltd. formally launched the “Shenzhou-Baowo Automobile New Retail Platform””” Through the transformation of the industrial chain and platform empowerment, we have achieved a complete separation of production and sales, reshaped channels, reorganized automobile consumption, and redefined new automobile retail.

Relying on its established domestic leading car sharing service system and new car retail service platform, the company will achieve comprehensive and in-depth strategic cooperation with Beijing Baowo in the fields of automobile manufacturing, vehicle procurement and fleet operation, sales system expansion and joint marketing.Exploit the “new auto retail” model, give full play to the advantages of common resources, and achieve common development.

Through the new strategic cooperation with Beijing Bao Wo, the company expanded its business scope and business scale, while reducing the company’s procurement costs and overall operating costs, further improving profitability, improving the company’s automotive industry chain layout, and enhancing overall market competitiveness.

(Company Annual Report) Investment suggestion: The company will become the leader in online ride-hailing service providers in China that fully meets the new ride-hailing regulatory standards of the online ride-hailing industry and has a clear profit model. The current city size is 45.2 billion.

Risk warning: profit fluctuation risk, policy risk in the ride-hailing industry, and customer default risk.

Guizhou Moutai (600519) 2019Q3 financial report review： channel reform has a long way to go

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Guizhou Moutai (600519) 2019Q3 financial report review: channel reform has a long way to go
Event: The company released the third quarter report of 2019, and the company achieved operating income of 609 in the first three quarters.35 trillion, ten years +16.64%, achieving net profit of 304.55 ppm, +23 for ten years.13%.Among them, Q3 achieved revenue of 214.47 trillion, ten years +13.81%, realized net profit attributable to mother 105.0.5 billion, +17 a year.11%.　　Channel reform is still in a period of adjustment, which will pave the way for the company’s price control.The company’s Q3 launch volume was about 9,100 tons, which was less than expected. Before last year, the company replaced 6000 tons of Moutai from 437 Moutai dealers and began channel reform to increase the proportion of direct sales.Reduce the amount of phased deviation, direct sales amount 31 in 19Q3.3.0 billion, a decrease of 7 compared with the same period last year.6.7 billion.As the first liquor company of Moutai, channel reform requires multiple parties to balance and consider, and steadily advance.However, strengthening the control of prices requires the support of channel structure, which is the cornerstone of stable development in the future. It can be seen that the current company’s control of prices is very effective.　　Moutai’s approval price stands firm at more than 2,000 yuan, and demand for high-end liquor is strong.At present, the capital price of Moutai is around 2300 yuan, maintaining a slight growth trend.After the Mid-Autumn Festival peak season, the approval price was as small as about 2200 yuan, and the price was adjusted to adjust the delivery. However, Moutai was still in a state of supply and demand substitution. As Moutai merged with fair social value, it was also a recognized social currency.Therefore, future prices will rise in pulses.At present, the high-end liquor market capacity is about 6 inches. With the expansion of 2-3 seconds in the next three years, the high-end liquor will continue to experience a phase of rising volume and price.　　As a leader in the industry, Moutai will continue to benefit and lead the upgrade of the liquor industry.　　The proportion of direct sales increased and the target scale price rose, 北京夜网 or it helped the company to exceed the first-class performance expectations of 14% -16% in 19 years.The main driving force of the company’s long-term value is to break through the high-end wine ceiling, further increase the ex-factory price and expand the proportion of direct sales.We believe that the increase in the proportion of direct sales will be a new driver for the growth of Moutai’s performance in recent years. Although the direct sales in the first three quarters have been slow, there are still costs of acceleration.19Q3 direct sales accounted for 5%, and the earlier 19H1 increased by 1 pct.Recently, direct sales channels such as Wumart, China Resources Vanguard, Costco, Tmall, and Suning have been gradually promoted, which has also raised the market’s expectation of increasing the proportion of direct sales.The company is expected to release 3 in 19 years.1 initially, at least 10.7%, the acceleration of the gradual direct sales progress and the gradual implementation in advance, the sales volume is expected to be guaranteed.In addition, the launch of non-standard products has also improved the product structure to a certain extent and raised the price of wine per ton.In terms of volume and price, the incremental contribution in 2019 will be 10% -13%, and the increase in price contribution will be 3% -5%. We believe that the probability of Moutai in 19 years will exceed the expected performance of 14% -16%.　　Profit forecast: The company is expected to achieve revenue of 910 in 2019-2021.34/1181.80/1477.25 ppm, an increase of 17 in ten years.92% / 29.82% / 25.00%, net profit attributable to mother 440.66/596.05/767.61 ppm, an increase of 25 in ten years.18% / 35.26% / 28.78%, corresponding to 35.08/47.45/61.11 yuan.Based on the 2020 EPS calculation, the company is given 30 times the expectation, maintaining a target price of 1,424 yuan and a space of 18%, maintaining the company’s “highly recommended” rating.　　Risk reminders: food safety risks, macroeconomic downside risks, and direct management advancement is less than expected.