Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) semi-annual report review: Bolifen’s explosive growth, the province’s external growth driving force
Key points of investment: The company released its 19-year interim report and achieved revenue of 63 in 1H19.
800 million yuan, an increase of 22.
3%; net profit attributable to mother 11.
900 million yuan, an increase of 26.
In the second quarter of 19, revenue was 23.
200 million yuan, an increase of 26.
3%; net profit attributable to mother 3.
1.3 billion, an increase of 38%.
Ping An’s view: 2Q19 revenue, net profit growth basically in line with expectations.
Blue and white, Laobaifen maintained rapid growth, Bolifen’s growth accelerated.
In 1H19, the revenue of Qinghuafen wine with a wholesale price of 200 yuan / bottle increased by about 20%, and the old Baifen series (including Panama) with a wholesale price of 100-200 yuan / bottle increased by 10-20%. The biggest highlight is the wholesale price of 40.-50 yuan / bottle of Bfen, the revenue growth rate is estimated to reach 50-60%, 36% of the earlier 18 years has further accelerated. It should be the transformation of wineries to increase the speed of national expansion. Bophin is fast in this price band.Grab market 杭州桑拿 share.
In addition, the revenue from the preparation of Jiuzhuyeqing increased by 33% to 2 trillion, including a series of wine sales of Fen and Xinghuacun4.
8.1 billion, it is estimated that it is almost flat every year. Among them, Fen Brand has declined due to internal adjustments. Xinghua Village has grown rapidly.
At the end of the second quarter of 19, the balance of advance receipts was 14.
800 million, previously, the chain increased by 6 respectively.
800 million, should be spared for the second half of the year.
Outside the province has become the main driving force for growth, and the province has continued its steady growth momentum.
In 1H19, Fenjiu realized revenue receipts 31 in Shanxi Province and outside the Province.
500 million, 31.
7 ‰, an increase of 9 in ten years.
8厦门夜网%, the scale outside the province exceeded the province for the first time.
In 2019, Fenjiu increased its expansion outside the province and vigorously explored core terminals with good results.
Due to the high market share of Fen liquor in Shanxi Province, 9.
The 7% growth rate basically reflects the market growth rate.
Looking ahead to 2019 and 2020, outside the province will still be the main source of growth for Fenjiu, and there is room for growth.
Multi-factors helped increase gross profit margins, and expansion outside the province pushed up expense ratios.
The gross profit margin in the second quarter of 19 was 70.
6% up 3 per year.
3Pct, or due to three factors: December 18-19 March, Fenjiu purchased the Group’s wine assets several times (1H18 shares sold the Group’s liquor products in a connected transaction mode, the gross profit margin was low); 2Q19 yields were lowered;Bolifen and blue and white fen wine 1H19 raise prices.
The sales expense ratio in the second quarter of 19 was 23.
02%, up 4 a year.
47Pct, it should be a winery to rapidly develop terminals outside the province, increase the upfront cost, and increase competition in the industry.
The management expense ratio in the second quarter of 19 was 7.
39% (including research and development), rising 0 in ten years.
42Pct, mainly due to the increase in employee compensation, is basically normal. The prospect of nationalization is good, and the recommendation level is maintained.
In the base market of Shanxi Province, Fen Jiu has an absolute leading edge. At the same time, as a fragrance-type leader, it has a natural national gene.
The company has initially completed the reform of the sales system, rationalized the product mix, and promoted the expansion outside the province through the product mix of “second high-end blue and white + low-end Bfen”.
Considering the increasing market competition leading to an increase in expenses, the EPS forecast for 19 and 20 years is lowered by about 4% and 5% to 2.
66 yuan, an increase of about 30 a year.
6%, 21%, PE is about 32.
4 times, maintaining the “recommended” level.
Risk reminders: 1) Downside risk of liquor industry.
The spirit of the liquor industry is highly correlated with the price trend. If the price of liquor drops, it may lead to a significant increase in corporate revenue.
2) Leader change easily leads to business fluctuation risks.
Liquor companies are greatly affected by business strategies, such as mergers and acquisitions, which may lead to corporate revenue and significant changes in profits.
3) Policy risks.
The liquor industry demand, tax rate, etc. are affected by policy changes. If related policies change, it may transform corporate revenue and profit may have a conversion impact.