Focus Media (002027): The economic downturn will gradually release the scale effect of revenue

Focus Media (002027): The economic downturn will gradually release the scale effect of revenue

Core point of view: The company released the 2018 annual report and the 2019Q1 quarterly report. It is expected that the net profit of 19Q2 is still under pressure on April 25, 2019. The company released the 2018 annual report and the first quarter of 2019 report.

The company achieved revenue of 145 in 2018.

51 ppm, an increase of 21 in ten years.

12%; net profit attributable to mother 58.

23 ppm, 10-year average3.

03%; the net profit of non-attributed mothers will be gradually realized by 50%.

26 ppm, a 10-year increase3.

58%.

The company achieved operating income of 26 in 2019Q1.

11 ‰, a decrease of 11 per year.

78%; net profit attributable to mothers3.

40 ‰, 71 years average.

81%; Realize deduction of non-returned net profit1.

16 ‰, 89 years before.

17%.

The weak growth in 19Q1 was mainly due to the supplementary economic downturn in the off-season. We expect the economic downturn will still affect Q2 revenue.

According to the company’s performance guidance, 2019H1 is expected to achieve net profit attributable to mothers7.

4?
11.

At 0 ppm, the average annual fluctuation is expected to be -77.

88%?
-67.

12%.

Accelerating the layout in 2018, the pace of expansion in Q1 2019 has improved, and the company has about 72 self-operated equipment for elevator TV media at the end of 2018.

40,000 units, about 2 join the equipment.

50,000 units; self-operated media in elevator poster media is about 193.

80,000, about 8 outsourcing poster media.

50,000 units, cinema media screen more than 1.

270,000 yuan.

The value of elevator media resources at the end of 2019Q1 is 275.

50,000, 9 in a single season.

30,000 units.

The overall expansion pace indicator for 2019 has improved in the second half of 2018.

We believe that the accelerated layout in 2018 has enabled Focus Media to integrate a marketing network that can cover the most core groups. The scale effect brought by more points in the future will continue to be released, and the value of media resources will be further highlighted.

The macroeconomic downturn, the proportion of receivables / revenues and prepayments / revenues rose sharply until March 31, 2019, and the balance of accounts receivable and bills receivable on the company’s account was 42.

2 trillion, accounts receivable and bills receivable / operating income ratio is 161.

6%, about the same period in previous years increased significantly.

Affected by macroeconomic indicators, the repayment cycle of the company’s core customers has generally slowed down.
In terms of prepayment, as of March 31, 2019, the company’s prepayment amount was 12.

400000000.
The increase in prepaid accounts since the second quarter of 2018 was mainly due to the increase in the prepaid media resource rent and the increase in equipment purchase prepayments brought about by the rapid expansion of expansion.

Investment suggestion: We expect Focus Media to realize net profit attributable to mothers from 2019 to 202037.

55/48.

38 重庆耍耍网 trillion, EPS is 0.

26/0.

33 yuan, 2019/4/25 closing price corresponding to PE are 25.

6/19.

8 times.

We believe that Focus Media, as the pioneer of elevator media, has a strong point network and sales capabilities to build a wide moat.

In the future, after 2018, the maximum point will be increased, the scale effect will continue to be released, and the industry leader will gradually stabilize.

We give the company 22 times PE in 2020, corresponding to a reasonable value7.

26 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risks suggest a downturn in the macro economy; intensified market competition; and less than expected box office.